The number of aluminum recyclable cans which can theoretically be recycled is close to infinity, owing to the physical properties of aluminum, there is no loss when smelting. It is calculated by the Aluminum Association that about 75% of aluminum products worldwide continue in use, with beverage can recycling rates up to 69% (2021), and it takes one ton of recycled aluminum to save 14 tons of carbon dioxide and preserve 95% of energy compared to primary aluminum production. For example, the United States recycles 45 billion aluminum cans annually, which, if recycled, would meet three hours of the nation’s electricity demand. Economically, the marginal cost to produce recycled aluminum cans is just 5% of original aluminum production, and the smelting efficiency exceeds 90% – The cycle of recycling aluminum cans to reprocessing for producing new cans is reduced by closed-loop supply chain to 60 days, and a single line’s annual processing capacity exceeds 10 billion (2022 annual financial report).
In terms of environmental benefit, European Aluminium Association statistics show that if the global recycling rate of aluminium cans could be increased to 90 per cent, then carbon emissions could be reduced by 150 million tonnes a year, or equivalent to 320 million adult trees’ carbon absorption over 10 years. China’s aluminum can recycling amount in 2021 was 2 million tons, but the rate of recovery is only 40%, and after the introduction of the German “deposit system” (0.25 euros per can refund), it can be increased to 98% (German practice statistics). Technically, Novelis’s “aluminum recycling integration” process allows purity in recycled aluminum to be up to 99.9% and the electricity consumption per ton of recycled aluminum to be a mere 7,000 KWH, or 92% less than new aluminum. For example, Coca-Cola in 2023 announced that 70% of its European beverage cans have been using recycled aluminum, which has reduced its carbon footprint by 120,000 tons every year.
Market trends suggest that the global market for recycled aluminum will increase from $76 billion in 2023 to $130 billion in 2030 (CAGR 7.1%), with more than 30% contribution coming from aluminum cans. Daiwa Can’s test in Japan proved that the same production of aluminum cans’ strength reduced by only 0.3% after 50 cycles, fully satisfying ASTM B209 industry standard. Still, there remain bottlenecks in the recycling loop: only 55% of aluminum cans globally are truly recycled, having a loss of 25% in developing countries due to lacking sorting technology (World Bank 2022 report). Herein, Brazil’s Tetra Pak collaboratively pushed AI sorting machines in cooperation with domestic enterprises, and the sorting rate rose from 78% to 95%, the processing capacity increased to 6,000 / hour, and the cost dropped by 40%. In the future, if the recycling rate of aluminum cans in the world is more than 80%, it will generate $23 billion of annual benefits (McKinsey estimates), and reduce waste to landfill by 280 million cubic meters – a goal that will depend on a three-dimensional synergy of policy incentives (e.g., the EU’s “green tax”), technological innovation, and consumer behavior change.